The United States and Russia are putting at risk a proposed agreement that could begin international negotiations on rules for autonomous weapons, as 128 countries prepare to decide whether they can reach consensus in Geneva on Friday. The draft is nonbinding, but its approval could open the way to talks on prohibitions and regulations for lethal autonomous weapons systems, or LAWS. Defense News reported that three diplomats said opposition from Washington and Moscow had raised doubts about the outcome.
The negotiations are taking place under the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, a United Nations-hosted framework that regulates or bans weapon types considered excessively injurious or indiscriminate. The 128 states party to the convention have been meeting throughout the week. Their immediate task is not to adopt binding limits on autonomous weapons, but to determine whether the proposed text can command the consensus required to move the process forward.
A majority of participating countries has backed the draft, but two diplomatic sources said the United States and Russia submitted late changes and deletions. The changes could force negotiators to remove provisions developed over several years if they cannot settle their differences before the meeting ends. One diplomat warned that “The window is getting smaller to getting an agreement,” while another said diplomats could run out of time and leave the meeting without a deal.
The central dispute concerns the form and strength of any future international framework. A senior diplomat said the U.S. position had hardened during the previous six months and now favored guidance rather than a legally binding treaty. Washington argues that existing international humanitarian law already provides a framework for governing the conduct of warfare. Russia, India and Turkey support that general position, according to the diplomatic account.
The United States has also sought support for its approach. Two diplomats said Washington made formal diplomatic approaches to at least six countries concerning the draft text. One of them characterized the outreach as evidence that the United States was actively trying to build enough support for consensus, even as disagreements over the document remained unresolved.
Language in the draft remains a particular obstacle. Negotiators are debating the use of terms including “lethality” and provisions addressing human judgment and control over autonomous weapons. Brazil, Ireland and several African states are among those backing a legally binding treaty. They argue that safeguards are needed to preserve meaningful human control, while opponents of that approach favor greater flexibility in how states manage the systems.
The debate has gained urgency as semi-autonomous weapons are used or discussed in connection with conflicts in Ukraine, Sudan and the Middle East. Such systems can identify and engage targets with varying degrees of autonomy. Human Rights Watch and the Stop Killer Robots campaign have warned that weapons assisted by artificial intelligence may behave unpredictably, increasing the risk of fatal errors. States agree that international humanitarian law applies to LAWS, but specifically binding international standards for these systems remain largely absent.
The disagreement also follows an August warning from U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Red Cross President Mirjana Spoljaric that the world was approaching a moral red line if autonomous weapons could kill without human involvement. The Russian mission in Geneva did not comment, while the U.S. mission did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Negotiators must now resolve the disputed wording and late proposed changes or risk losing the draft and postponing the next step toward international rules.