The US Navy’s publicly declared transits of the Taiwan Strait have fallen sharply under the second Trump administration, with the current pace projecting just 14 passages during the full term. That would represent a 50 percent decline from the first Trump administration and a 56 percent decline from the Biden administration, according to an analysis by Heritage Foundation researchers published by Breaking Defense.

A pair of US naval vessels conducted the first publicly declared US Navy transit of 2026 several weeks after Chinese military exercises around Taiwan in December 2025 featured a mock comprehensive air and naval blockade. It remains the only publicly declared transit initiated by the US Navy this year and one of only three since the second Trump administration began, the analysis said.

The researchers counted 28 naval transits during the first Trump administration and 32 during the Biden administration. Their figures draw on official statements from the US and foreign governments, news reports, US naval press reports and existing databases, including the Taiwan Security Monitor. The projection for the current administration is based on the pace of publicly reported passages rather than a stated Navy schedule.

The decline comes as Chinese military activity around Taiwan has become more persistent. Since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022, incursions into Taiwanese airspace and the island’s surrounding waters have occurred on a near-daily basis, the analysis said. Roughly five or six Chinese warships surround Taiwan on any given day, while the Defense Department’s 2025 China Military Report assessed that daily activity around Taiwan, near-weekly joint combat patrols and response exercises during periods of heightened tension had each reached successive yearly highs.

The Strait transits serve two related purposes. They demonstrate that the United States does not accept China’s assertion that the waterway is Chinese territorial waters, and they maintain a visible US military presence near Taiwan. China claims the strait as territorial waters, but the United States and virtually all other countries do not recognize that claim as lawful or legitimate, according to the Heritage analysis.

The operational value extends beyond signaling. Regular passages give the US Navy experience navigating one of the world’s most contested waterways. A prolonged reduction could therefore reduce that familiarity while creating uncertainty among allies and partners about Washington’s priorities. The analysis also links the concern to other forms of Chinese pressure, including the severing of undersea cables and stops and inspections of Taiwanese vessels.

Not all analysts regard the raw transit count as decisive. Former Pentagon official Drew Thompson told Breaking Defense that transits are “just one aspect of U.S. military presence” and should be assessed qualitatively rather than quantitatively. The count does not capture the full scope of US activity in the region, but publicly announced passages have a distinct visibility that other operations may not share.

There is also uncertainty over whether the reported decline reflects fewer operations or less public disclosure. Some observers have suggested that the Navy may be conducting “silent transits” that the Pentagon does not announce in order to reduce tensions with Beijing. A US official later confirmed that USS Higgins and HMS Richmond transited the strait in September 2025, although the Navy issued no press release about that passage.

That possibility would mean the public numbers understate the total number of transits, but it would not eliminate the signaling effect of fewer announcements. A joint US-Canadian passage in October 2024 was publicly described by Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry as the fourth such transit in less than two years and as concrete action to safeguard peace in the Taiwan Strait. The Heritage researchers argue that returning to the routine tempo of publicly announced transits used during the previous two administrations would make Washington’s position clearer to allies, partners and Beijing.